Let's look for a minute at current homes under contract. I noted recently a dramatic increase in the number of homes on MLS under contract, a 65% increase from the beginning of the year in fact. However, it should be pointed out that the local MLS board recently posted a memo to local Realtors that not listing a property to be under contract when in fact it is, is a fineable charge. I believe this to have had an impact on these figures. That said though, there are currently 64 homes under contract in the Helena area. These homes have an average (list) price of $231,461 and a median (list) price of $196,000. Why is this significant?

The current contract amount is not disclosed on MLS but if we consider the current list to sales price ratio of 96.78%, the current median sales price in the area would adjust to $189,689 and average to $224,008.  That is 5.39% lower than the current median and I believe that to be a significant number. Over 5% is kind of what gets my attention.

I want to emphasize though, these numbers don’t mean this is the future of property values in Helena. It will take more than 64 sales to change the average and median of the nearly 700 sales that our current statistics are calculated on. Additionally, if you consider the median list price is up $5,000 or 1.85% in just one week, (6.17%  since January 5^th, 2009) it would appear market expectations are not declining, and consumer sentiment is very important when forecasting these figures.  

Furthermore, I would like to point out 5 of these sales currently under contract have list prices of over $400,000, 3 over $500,000.

And just an interesting tidbit for those of you who read the rest of the news letter, the average size of these homes, including basement area is 2,119 square feet.